ABC’S EARTH 2100

            Disaster stories have a strange appeal to audiences and filmmakers and media folks are more than eager to accommodate them.

            Last week, in an attempt to look at the future, ABC News with host Bob Woodruff, blended together what might be called a two-hour reality/disaster feature that was strong on scientific research and long on cautious predictions.  The result was an interesting show titled, Earth 2100.

            In a pre-press release focused on the program, ABC summed up its story line like this, “Experts have a stark warning:  that unless we change course, the ‘perfect storm’ of population growth, dwindling resources and climate change has the potential to converge in the next century with catastrophic results.”

            As can be expected with any production such as this many topics and potential crises are covered.  However, for those of us already well-educated about the population- related disasters to come, it was helpful that the program did not ignore this key issue.

            John Holdren, science advisor to President Obama noted, “If we continue on the business as usual trajectory, there will be a tipping point that we cannot avert.”

            ABC notes, “Scientists predict that by 2020, global catastrophes may well begin to accelerate.  The human population is expected to explode and animal species may be dying off at a rapid rate.  As the world becomes more chaotic, the costs of mending it would grow more and more daunting.  By 2030 gradually rising temperatures may have shifted rainfall patterns around the globe, and many experts warn much of the world may face serious shortages of our most basic need – water.”

            Indeed, Janine Benyus, science writer and founder of the Biomimicry Institute is quoted as stating, “By 2030, two-thirds of the world’s population will be under water stress.”  Thomas Homer-Dixon, a political science professor and author of “The Upside of Down,” concurs by pointing out, “Something that will catch people’s attention is the first rich city that just runs out of water.”

            Toward the end of the program, Joseph Tainter, an expert in anthropology and societal collapse noted, “Every society that collapsed thought it couldn’t happen to them.  The Roman Empire thought it couldn’t happen.  The Maya civilization thought it couldn’t happen.  Everyone thought it couldn’t happen.  But it did.”

            As is necessary in this age of reality TV, ABC took time to note that “though there is some disagreement about the specifics, there is widespread agreement among the 50-plus experts we spoke to in the course of our 18 months working on this show that if we do not change course in the near future, the collapse of our civilization is a real possibility.”

            NPG commends ABC for spotlighting the dangers of population growth.  With luck, the program attracted strong ratings and will be repeated.  The lessons it conveys are vital to our future.  We encourage you to contact ABC to express your interest in having them air this valuable program again.

 

THE SIXTH EXTINCTION?

             The May 25th edition of The New Yorker contains an interesting story by author Elizabeth Kolbert with the above title and the subheading:  “There have been five great die-offs in history.  This time, the cataclysm is us.”  This well-written article focuses on how, while past extinctions were brought on by natural disasters such as massive volcanic eruptions, rapid climate change, and meteors hitting the earth, humans currently share the blame for the disappearance of huge numbers of species.  It notes that “Of the many species that have existed on earth – estimates run as high as fifty billion – more than ninety-nine percent have disappeared.”  The connection to the extinction of many of them concurrent with the arrival of humans in such areas as North and South America and Australia is examined, with special focus on amphibians.  A key paragraph that serves as a reminder of how quickly we have sped up this problem in recent years includes this insight:

            “Human impacts on the planet have increased proportionately.  Farming, logging and building have transformed between a third and a half of the world’s land surface, and even these figures probably understate the effect, since land not being exploited may still be fragmented.  Most of the world’s major waterways have been diverted or dammed or otherwise manipulated – in the United States, only two percent of rivers run unimpeded – and people now use half the world’s readily accessible freshwater runoff.  Chemical plants fix more atmospheric nitrogen than all natural terrestrial processes combined, and fisheries remove more than a third of the primary production of the temperate coastal waters of the oceans.  Through global trade and international travel, humans have transported countless species into ecosystems that are not prepared for them.  We have pumped enough carbon dioxide into the air to alter the climate and to change the chemistry of the oceans.”

            It has taken humankind tens of thousands of years to get to this point where our globe supports almost six billion people – it will take only a few decades before that number increases by 50% to nine billion.  How long can people turn a blind eye to the population problem?

          

WHAT’S RENEWABLE?

             If there is one clear-cut phrase that is instructive as to learning how decision-making in Washington, D.C. works, it would come down to three simple words – follow the money.

            On May 25th, The New York Times ran a story that focuses on what is surely an interesting debate now going on in Washington, D.C. as to what constitutes renewable energy.  At stake are countless billions in new federal dollars ready to be dispersed to deal with global warming and other environmental concerns and lobbying groups representing everyone from windmill makers to dam builders are lining up to get their fair share.

            The problem is that everyone – including Congressmen and Senators – has their own idea as to where the terms “renewable” and “alternative” can be applied when talking about energy.  As the Times article notes, “In Pennsylvania, waste coal and methane from coal mines receive the same treatment as solar panels and wind turbines.  In Nevada, old tires can count as a renewable fuel, provided microwaves are used to break down their chemical structure.”  Waste Management, Inc. argues that since they convert trash into energy, then even a banana can be considered renewable.

            According to the Times, “...Environmentalists argue that one of the goals of renewable energy is to cut back on the heat-trapping gases emitted from burning most things, whether fossil fuels or bananas.”  It notes that waste-to-energy technology was not part of the original climate bill but one influential Congressman found a way to include it – the fact that a $227 million waste-to-energy plant is planned for his district is only a happenstance.

            Senator Jeff Bingaman, chairman of the Senate Energy Committee sees a problem with stretching the renewable debate to include too much.  He notes, “The goal is to encourage the development of some of the newer technologies and bring the price down.  If you throw in everything else, then your numbers get out of whack.”

            The problem facing those trying to rewrite new energy legislation and give a leg up to new technologies is best summed up by lobbyist Graham Matthews, who states, “Energy policy is balkanized by region, and that dictates the debate.  The politics become incredibly complicated.”

           

 POPULATION AND IMMIGRATION NEWS

 IT’S ALL ABOUT POLITICS…

            The White House has called for a major meeting on immigration next week and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has noted that immigration reform is the No. 3 priority on his agenda this year.  However, in making that statement Reid added the caveat, “if at all possible.” 

            That’s an interesting “if” and there may be more behind it.

            What could hold up an all-out White House push for amnesty for illegals (which is the President’s goal) is the worry that a number of newly-elected House Democrats in competitive districts are vulnerable in the 2010 elections.  If they are pushed too hard to back a full-citizenship/amnesty measure which the Latino lobby is demanding, it could end up costing them their seats.  Obama needs the votes of these vulnerable legislators on a lot more issues than immigration legislation.

 

 GROWTH IS COSTLY FOR NATION’S COUNTIES

            The population of Denton County, Texas, has grown 24 percent in the past ten years and with that growth comes major construction costs for roads, schools, water and sewer lines, etc.  A recent article in the Denton Record-Chronicle highlighted how issuing bonds for financing such borrowing is getting to be pretty expensive.

            The county’s borrowing – which has grown 115% since 2003, has increased to the point where each man, woman and child in Denton now owes $6,442.  That compares with the average Texas local debt of $6,013 per capita.

            Why is this important?  Because we cannot ignore the fact that population growth brings huge costs.  There is a limit to how much debt taxpayers will carry before they rise up in revolt or the entire system collapses – especially when debt is growing faster than the population.  The current recession has unleashed a huge multi-trillion dollar spending spree on the federal level.  And some states, like California, are already well beyond their sustainable debt level.  Are America’s counties next?

            The Denton Record-Chronicle story quoted Peggy Venable, Texas state director for Americans for Prosperity, which supports limited government and free market principles as saying, “The debt that we’re incurring locally is something that most taxpayers don’t focus on; they’re worried about the federal debt.”  Venable is right, but in the end our children and grandchildren will have to pay back all the dollars we borrow today, no matter what government entity spent them.  The question is:  Will they be able to afford it?

 

ONGOING WATER WORRIES

            Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography look at water resources inland as well as monitoring the world’s vast seas and don’t like what they see.  The report is that there is a 50% chance that Lake Mead, America’s largest artificial reservoir that dispenses water to much of the Southwestern U.S., will run dry by 2021 and a 10% chance it could run out of useable water by 2014, depending on whether the drought worsens and water use increases.  The problem is not only long-running drought conditions in the area but population growth.  Since 1990, Arizona’s population has increased by 80%, Colorado’s has risen more than 50% and Nevada has more than doubled.

 

CHANGING NUMBERS…SAME RESULT

            According to the latest data released by the Census Bureau, the slowdown of immigrants – especially Hispanics and Asians – arriving in the U.S. now that jobs are scarce may cause the government to push back estimates on when minorities will become the majority of our nation’s population.  A report on AOL News noted that the Census Bureau projected last August that white children will become the minority as soon as 2023 and the overall white population will follow in 2042.  While the nation’s minority population continues to rise steadily, its growth rate has slackened.  In 2008, the minority population stood at 104.6 million but the slowdown in new Hispanics and Asians arriving in our country “may shift conventional notions on when the tipping point in U.S. diversity will occur.”  Black growth rates remain almost flat.

      Included among other findings:

• Nationally, there are 48 counties with Hispanic majorities; the top ten were all in Texas.  The gateway cities of Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Houston and Chicago had the greatest number of Hispanics.
• Honolulu County, Hawaii, was the only county in the nation with an Asian majority.  New York City had the highest population of Asians surpassing Los Angeles.  Asians also numbered high in San Francisco, San Jose, and Chicago.

 

OPENING THE DOOR

            Mike Cutler, Senior Writing Fellow for Californians for Population Stabilization has put together a must-read commentary regarding current plans to enact comprehensive immigration reform and the inability of the federal agencies in charge to do the necessary follow-up to protect our nation’s security.  His arguments are persuasive:

            “There are many compelling reasons why I am adamantly opposed to any amnesty program, but the number one reason is the potential impact on national security and the safety of our nation and its citizens.  The program is the equivalent of a homeowner handing out keys to the front door of his home to virtually anyone who walks by.

            The locksmith that is charged with making keys to our nation and distributing them to aliens is the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).  The Government Accounting Office (GAO) and the Office of Inspector General (OIG) have issued a slew of excruciatingly detailed reports showing ineptitude and malfeasance on an unimaginable scale that have overwhelmed USCIS.

            Any amnesty program would mean that millions of new applications would be dumped on USCIS desks.  Evaluating them is a task the agency isn’t up to now and won’t be in the foreseeable future.

            Because of this terrible problem, Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR), as amnesty is known, would be administered by an agency already operating without a shred of integrity.  Our government could not prevent criminals and terrorists from receiving official identity documents or screen people who are not who they say they are.  This program would ultimately provide such aliens with resident alien status and then United States citizenship….”  Read more at www.caps.org.

 

NPG NOTES

 NPG ANTI-AMNESTY BATTLE FUND

             NPG’s efforts to play a key role in the forthcoming immigration debate is dependent on our being able to build up our NPG Anti-Amnesty Battle Fund that we launched in April.  Thus far, hundreds of loyal NPG members and supporters have contributed to this effort.  Funds raised will be used to activate tens of thousands of NPG members to pressure their Senators and Congressmen to reject any legislation that grants amnesty and citizenship to the millions of illegals now in our country.  Our efforts will also focus on getting members to make phone calls and send e-mails to Capitol Hill, participate in writing “Letters to the Editor” of their hometown newspapers, run ads in targeted newspapers, and put our NPG spokesman on radio nationwide.

            If you have not yet made a special contribution, please do so today.  Send a check to NPG, 2861 Duke Street #36, Alexandria, VA 22314.  For additional information call 703-370-9510.

  

QUOTABLE

            “Illegal immigration is probably not an issue the candidates are going to bring up unless it’s brought up to them.  I’m a Republican, so I can say this:  Let’s face it, the Republicans do not want a witch hunt about the Hispanic problem.”

Virginia State Sen. John C. Watkins,
Commenting on the 2009 Virginia Elections

 

             “When rainforests are slashed and burned, it affects every one of us.  It releases carbon into the air that we breathe. It changes our climate.  Deforestation accounts for 20% of all carbon emissions, which is more than the amount that all the cars, planes, trains and ships in the world emit, combined.”

From an advertisement of Conservation International

  

          “There was a time when bright-eyed environmentalists tried to frighten the lethargic public into action with doomsday scenarios, but the fact is that ‘scenario’ is no longer applicable; the nightmare has become reality for the bay.  It is important to remember that the bay did not naturally reach its polluted state – political decisions stole the soul of the Chesapeake.”

Gerald W. Winegrad and Howard Ernst
“A Bay of Broken Promises” 
Washington Post  5/24/09

 

WHY THE NPG JOURNAL?

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 The NPG Journal (offered free to all recipients) exists to give more widespread distribution to timely news stories and articles related to population, immigration, environmental and political issues that currently affect our daily life -- or have the potential to seriously impact our future. 

We realize not all news stories covering population issues will reflect NPG policies and goals.  One of our main purposes in creating the NPG Journal is to expose these items to a wider audience, and to draw attention to the fact that so many articles speak to immigration and population issues but often fail to address the central cause of many problems – TOO MANY PEOPLE. 

Ultimately, NPG would like to see writers at all levels make the obvious (to us, at least) connection between environmental and resource problems and the growing number of people in both the United States and the world. Unfortunately, most do not.  To that end, we comment as necessary to help our readers see those links in hopes they will continue to speak out on what we deem to be the most pressing issue of our time – population size and growth.

NPG President Donald Mann offers his personal insight and commentary on individual stories, especially those that challenge, confirm and/or complement our NPG Research and Forum Papers.  The goal of the NPG Journal is to greatly expand NPG’s educational mission. NPG’s activities continue to emphasize the need for Americans to speak up on population issues and keep our nation -- especially our elected leaders on the national, state and local level – focused on taking action to help resolve today’s immigration crisis and work to halt, and eventually reverse America’s out-of-control population growth.

We welcome your feedback to articles posted on the NPG Journal and urge you to forward us the e-mail address of friends you think would like to receive a complimentary copy of the NPG Journal on a monthly basis. Contact us at www.npg.org.  

 

ABOUT NPG:

Negative Population Growth, Inc. (NPG) is a national nonprofit membership organization with over 30,000 members nationwide.  It was founded in 1972 to educate the American public and political leaders about the devastating effects of overpopulation on our environment, resources, and standard of living.  We believe that our nation is already vastly overpopulated in terms of the long-range carrying capacity of its resources and environment.