Maryland's Population in 2050: Is Smart Growth Enough? (Summary)

A summary

Maryland's "smart growth" plans are likely to be overwhelmed by the state's projected population increases of at least two million in the next fifty years. With these forecasted population pressures, Maryland's new neighborhoods and commercial strips could "consume as much land over the next 25 years as was developed in the state's first 366 years." Unless urgent steps are taken to reduce the state's projected population increases, smart growth plans simply will be overwhelmed by the demand pressure of population increases, placing further strains on overcrowded highways and schools, overtaxing the environment, compounding difficulties with saving the Chesapeake Bay and generating a persistent demand for more and more roads and "affordable" housing.

That's the conclusion of noted demographer and population policy expert Dr. Leon Bouvier and Sharon McCloe Stein, executive director of Negative Population Growth (NPG), in a new NPG report on the probable impact of Maryland's projected population growth.

Polls show that most Maryland voters believe continued population growth will worsen the quality of life in the state. Over 70 percent agree that new housing is being built too quickly, and most are skeptical that the state's political leadership can understand and effectively balance population-led development with maintaining the state's quality of life. Huge majorities think the pace of population growth is an urgent problem, say the authors.

In the report, "Maryland's Population in 2050," Bouvier and Stein look at how Maryland's counties are bearing up under the pressure for more housing and commercial development. Unlike Virginia, counties in Maryland have more local control and can play a lead role in curtailing incentives to population growth. They note that some counties have found successful formulas for limiting development, such as banning new sewer construction or denying building permits when school capacity is exceeded. In other cases, counties are resisting state incentives to limit growth - especially where developer interests are heavily represented on local planning boards. Success, they say, depends upon a unified all-county commitment to confining new building to pre-determined locales combined with strong incentives to reduce the state's future population size.

The authors note that Maryland is already one of the most densely populated in the nation, and is already struggling not only with water quality but air quality in many regions. Because the state has no plan to limit population growth, Bouvier and Stein warn, current projections will generate massive housing demand that, left unchecked, could dwarf anything we now view as mere suburbanization. Water quality and availability, air quality, traffic, congestion and an overwhelmed infrastructure will cause a rapid deterioration in the quality of life already marred by near-critical gridlock traffic in many parts of the state.

Bouvier and Stein conclude that for Smart Growth plans to have any chance of long-term success, steps must be taken to halt or substantially reduce the state's projected population increases. They propose a variety of approaches for Maryland residents to pursue at the Federal, state and local level. These include:

Require major new development proposals to be put to a community-wide vote of affected residents.
Work to forge new alliances among counties to promote incentives to enforce an even tougher series of restrictions than the state's Smart Growth plan; to try to ban development in areas that lack public facilities -- such as schools, roads and utilities -- and to charge impact fees for every house a developer builds. Try to discourage new sewer construction.
Link permission to build with a county's school capacity.
Push the state to buy more land to preserve open space.
Support strong programs throughout the state to promote education on the need for small families, and to encourage small families through education and family planning.
Encourage the state to enter into cooperative agreements with federal authorities to improve immigration law enforcement, and encourage comprehensive immigration reforms to reduce annual nationwide immigration levels.
Encourage the Governor to use his platform at the National Governors Association to elevate public awareness of the impact of population growth and the need to take steps to curtail it dramatically nationwide.

Bouvier and Stein conclude with an optimistic assessment that new community involvement is raising awareness of the need to curtail population pressures. The battle to contain sprawl and meet Maryland's Smart Growth objectives is raising awareness of the need to look at the deeper causes of pressure on the state's resources. The result is more effective grassroots action, and a renewed hope that Maryland's residents can develop a sustainable economy and environment by reducing population growth.